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Living on the postseason edge

It's a good thing Halloween's right around the corner because this is by far the scariest time of the football season.

With two games to go before the postseason pairings are announced, a bunch of teams are struggling to find their seat at the table. Maybe they sit on the edge of elimination with four losses, or maybe they sit at five wins with a thin number of playoff points.

Regardless, there's plenty of nervous energy heading into Week 8 as teams try to keep their playoff dreams alive. This week's Eyes on Five breaks it down.

1. Eyes on Four:

It's a thin line between a flood of DuPage County qualifiers and a drip. It all comes down to seven four-loss teams representing more than 20 percent of the area.

It takes five wins to be playoff eligible, but there's no guaranteed spot until six wins. That means those seven teams must win both their remaining games just to have any shot at the postseason.

Three of the teams - Lake Park, Metea Valley and Wheaton North - are DuPage Valley Conference squads, and each must beat two opponents with winning records. The combined winning percentage of those six opponents, by the way, is .762.

Addison Trail should beat winless Proviso East on Saturday to set up a win-or-go-home finale in Week 9. Unfortunately, that game is against unbeaten juggernaut Glenbard West.

York and Downers Grove North play each other this weekend, meaning one will be eliminated. Downers North has a great shot against one-win Proviso West in Week 9 while York faces a tougher finale against Lyons Twp. (5-2).

Finally, Westmont needs to survive a trip to unbeaten Manteno this weekend. If the Sentinels upset the Panthers, they'll play Sandwich (1-6) in Week 9 in search of a playoff berth.

Got all that? Don't worry...it'll be much more clear by the end of the weekend.

2. Five with fear:

There are also teams with four and five wins that might be concerned about playoff points. That's the strength-of-schedule number used as a tiebreaker when there aren't enough postseason spots for every 5-4 team.

Willowbrook is 4-3 but may need to win out because it has only 23 playoff points. St. Francis (4-3) has 26 and may need to win both games. Five-win Hinsdale South and Waubonsie Valley are in a little better shape with 28 points.

The good - possibly great - news is the cutoff for playoff points looks like it'll be low. Real low.

It's possible the cutoff could fall in the mid-30s. It may not be low enough to save Willowbrook if its ends up with five wins, but it should be low enough for every other five-win team to qualify.

3. No thanks:

For all the DuPage County squads on the list of teams I wouldn't want to face in the playoffs, two loom at the top.

First is Glenbard North. After starting the season 0-2 the Panthers have won five straight. They've played great defense all season, but in recent games the electrifying tandem of Devion Hodges and Vittorio Tricase has become a touchdown machine.

Good football teams become great when they can run the ball and stop the run on defense. Glenbard North is doing both.

The second team I wouldn't want to play is IC Catholic Prep ... simply because we've seen this before from the Knights.

When they show the ability to thrive with a schedule of much bigger schools, they roll through the postseason against schools closer to their size. It happened in 2002 and 2008 when the program won state titles.

And with 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Rowell in the mix for the Knights, there's a good chance they'll have the best player on the field every postseason game they play.

4. Randomness:

Random thought No. 1... For all the great players in the DuPage Valley Conference, I'm not sure anyone's had a bigger impact than Glenbard North's Devion Hodges. Last week he returned a kick 89 yards for a touchdown and returned an interception 65 yards for a touchdown. This season he's also run for a touchdown, caught a touchdown pass and returned a fumble for a touchdown. All he does is make big plays.

More randomness ... After spending last season in the Class 8A playoffs, Glenbard West as of now looks like it'll move back down to 7A. It'll be close, though. It won't take much movement to bump up the Hilltoppers into 8A.

Final random thought ... This has nothing to do with DuPage County but it's big news. Last weekend Rockford Lutheran running back James Robinson set the IHSA all-time rushing record. With two regular-season games and the playoffs still to come, Robinson has 8,681 yards. He's averaging 300 yards through seven games for the unbeaten Crusaders.

5. Stat time:

The list of DuPage County qualifiers grew to six last week and now includes Glenbard West, Hinsdale Central, IC Catholic Prep, Montini, Naperville Central and Neuqua Valley.

With five wins each, Benet, Glenbard North, Hinsdale South, Lisle and Waubonsie Valley can clinch a playoff berth with a win this weekend.

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@kevin_schmit

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